The Design and Estimation of a Household Vehicle Evolution and Composition Model for Assessing the Impact of Transportation Policies on Global Climate Change and Air Quality

(PI: Chandra Bhat)

This study focuses on the design and development of a comprehensive vehicle fleet composition, utilization, and evolution simulator that can be used to forecast household vehicle ownership and mileage by type of vehicle over time. The modeling of vehicle ownership and utilization by type over time is of considerable interest in the current planning context where much attention is being paid to energy sustainability and environmental stewardship. The models developed in this study can be used to obtain the fleet composition for a future year and/or examine the effects of a host of policy variables aimed at promoting vehicle mix/usage patterns that reduce GHG emissions and fuel consumption. In this way, the proposed research strives to improve the understanding of the intricate and complex relationship between transportation and the environment, and use this understanding to inform policy actions.

Keywords: vehicle fleet composition, household vehicle ownership, vehicle transactions and evolution, transportation demand forecasting, disaggregate microsimulation, behavioral choice model